Donald Trump walks across the South Lawn last night after arriving back at the White House on Marine One from a weekend at his golf club in New Jersey. (Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP)
THE BIG IDEA: President Trump is not Teflon, and the conventional wisdom that “nothing matters” is wrong.
A fresh Washington Post/ABC News poll underscores the softness of Trump’s support as he prepares to mark six months in the White House on Thursday.
It also highlights a growing intensity gap. Support for the president is more tepid, but opposition is increasingly inflamed.
The president’s overall approval rating has slipped to 36 percent from 42 percent in April. For context, George W. Bush and Barack Obama both held 59 percent approval ratings in Post/ABC polls conducted around their six-month anniversaries.
Media coverage often focuses on how rank-and-file Republicans, as well as elected officials, continue to stand behind Trump. While true, a close examination of the results suggests that no more than 1 in 4 Americans believe passionately in him or his presidency at this juncture.
Trump’s disapproval rating has risen to 58 percent in the national survey, which was conducted last Monday through Thursday. Overall, 48 percent disapprove strongly of how he’s doing. But while 36 percent approve of Trump overall, only 25 percent approve strongly.
Consider the partisan breakdown: 82 percent of self-identified Republicans approve of how Trump is doing, including 62 percent who approve strongly. Meanwhile, 85 percent of Democrats disapprove of Trump, but a larger 75 percent disapprove strongly.
Where Trump really differs from Obama is that his approval leans more heavily on strong backers. Obama’s average “strong” approval was 28 percent during his presidency, not much different than Trump today. But Obama averaged 21 percent “somewhat” approval, 10 points higher than Trump.
Would you say that the more you hear about Trump, the more you like him? Or the more you hear about Trump, the less you like him? Asked that question, roughly 3 in 10 adults said more. Nearly 6 in 10 said less.
The poll, based on a sample of more than 1,000 adults, has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
-- Responding on Twitter, Trump said his 36 percent approval rating – which he rounded up to 40 percent – “is not bad at this time.” But he also attacked the Post-ABC poll as “just about the most inaccurate poll around election time!” In fact, The Post and ABC’s final poll was well within the sampling error and correctly showed Clinton ahead in the national popular vote.
Trump waves to the crowd during the U.S. Women's Open golf tournament at his golf course in New Jersey. (Kelvin Kuo/USA Today Sports)
-- What Americans love and hate about Trump: A job approval rating can be an unsatisfyingly vague barometer. What exactly are people thinking when they say they approve or disapprove of the way a president is handling his job? Our new poll included an open-ended question asking Americans what they have either liked or disliked most about his presidency so far.
The most common answer for why people think Trump is doing a good job was “strong leadership,” a variation of which was offered by 11 percent. “Speaking his mind” and “not being politically correct” was a close second, at 9 percent. “In total, 30 percent of Trump approvers mentioned his overall leadership or personality traits when asked what they approve of most. But a somewhat larger group of Trump approvers, 40 percent, mentioned a policy-related reason for approving of Trump’s performance,” pollster Scott Clement explains. “Some 7 percent said foreign affairs, while 6 percent apiece cited the economy, creating jobs (and) preventing illegal immigration … Slightly fewer mentioned fighting terrorism (or) his efforts on health care legislation.”
Americans who disapprove of Trump focused heavily on the president's personal and character traits. “Topping the list of non-policy criticisms is the way Trump talks and acts (13 percent), laments about him not being informed or knowledgeable (12 percent), while another 12 percent mentioned concerns about lies, false statements or general dishonesty,” Scott writes in a story that just published. “Among disapprovers who named issues as their biggest criticism, the most common were immigration (8 percent) and health care (7 percent), the travel ban at 3 percent and others at 2 percent or less. Altogether, 46 percent of Trump disapprovers criticized something about his personality, honesty or style, while 25 percent mentioned a policy-related concern.”
The country may seem hopelessly divided, but the people who strongly approve and disapprove of Trump have something in common: When asked what they love or hate most about the president, 12 percent of strong approvers and 14 percent of strong disapprovers volunteered “everything.”
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson meets with the emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al Thani, at the Sea Palace in Doha, Qatar, last week. (Alexander W. Riedel/State Department via AP)
-- U.S. intelligence officials believe the United Arab Emirates hacked the Qatari government’s news and social media sites to post incendiary quotes attributed to the country’s ruler that were then used as a justification to blockade Qatar. Karen DeYoung and Ellen Nakashima report: “The hacks and posting took place on May 24, shortly after President Trump completed a lengthy counterterrorism meeting with Persian Gulf leaders in neighboring Saudi Arabia and declared them unified. Citing the emir’s reported comments, the Saudis, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt immediately banned all Qatari media. They then broke relations with Qatar and declared a trade and diplomatic boycott. … In a statement released in Washington by its ambassador, Yousef al-Otaiba, the UAE said the Post article was ‘false.’ … The conflict has also exposed sharp differences between Trump — who has clearly taken the Saudi and UAE side in a series of tweets and statements — and (Rex) Tillerson, who has urged compromise and spent most of last week in shuttle diplomacy among the regional capitals that has been unsuccessful so far … Qatar has repeatedly charged that its sites were hacked, but it has not released the results of its investigation.”
Roger Federer and Garbine Muguruza won Wimbledon. It was a record eighth title for Federer and the first for Muguruza. (Chuck Culpepper and AP)
NPR avoided a strike.The organization reached a tentative three-year deal with the union representing its employees on Saturday night. (Politico)
-- “President Trump, whose company outsources the manufacturing of many of its products to overseas factories, is unveiling ‘Made in America’ week at the White House to promote products made in the United States,” Philip Rucker reports. “In keeping with the 'America First' theme of Trump’s inauguration, the administration will highlight U.S. manufacturing in the coming week, the latest of its theme weeks orchestrated by aides to bring discipline to the White House and focus Trump’s schedule and message on a set of policies. … Trump’s advisers also hope that by highlighting U.S. manufacturing they can underscore the need to overhaul the nation’s tax code, including substantially reducing the corporate tax rate.”
Front and center will be Trump’s trade adviser Peter Navarro, who has dragged the president even more to the right on trade issues. Nancy Cook and Andrew Restuccia with one Politico's top stories: “Navarro has earned a reputation for stalking the halls of the West Wing at night and on the weekends to find a moment to slip into the Oval Office to privately discuss trade with the president, according to one White House official and a close adviser to the administration. It’s his way of maintaining influence through proximity. His clout, dating back to the campaign, has informed the president’s thinking on everything from NAFTA to new lumber tariffs to potential trade restrictions on steel and aluminum … He has since pulled the president so far right on trade that more moderate aides worry his proposals could launch a global trade war if Trump takes them too seriously.”
-- With no votes to spare, Mitch McConnell postponed plans late Saturday night for a key vote on his health-care bill after John McCain announced that he will be at home in Arizona this week recovering from surgery to remove a blood clot from above his left eye.
-- The delay caused by McCain’s absence may be longer than initial reports implied. “A statement released by Mr. McCain’s office on Saturday had suggested that he would be in Arizona recovering for just this week, but neurosurgeons interviewed said the typical recovery period could be longer,” the New York Times’ Denise Grady and Robert Pear report.
-- Despite the hurdles, McConnell’s second-in-command vowed that there would be a vote. The New York Times’ Robert Pear reports: “‘I believe as soon as we have a full contingent of senators, that we’ll have that vote,’ the No. 2 Senate Republican, John Cornyn of Texas, said on NBC’s ‘Meet the Press’ … The timing of the Senate vote is crucial … Moreover, the Senate schedule will soon be packed with other legislation … In addition, Republicans are eager to cut taxes and simplify the tax code … Mr. Cornyn acknowledged that ‘there’s uncertainty about what the final outcome will be.’ Asked what would happen if the bill did not pass, he said: ‘I assume we’ll keep trying. But at some point, if Democrats won’t participate in the process, then we’re going to have to come up with a different plan.’”
-- The delay, combined with continuing complaints about McConnell’s bill from its Republicans opponents, further imperiled the legislation’s prospects. Elise Viebeck reports: “A vocal conservative opponent of the measure, Sen. Rand Paul, predicted the delay would strengthen critics’ position by giving them more time to mobilize against the bill … The bill’s dramatic cuts to the Medicaid program are a significant concern for [Republican] governors such as [Nevada’s Brian] Sandoval as well as moderate senators such as Susan Collins (R-Maine) … ‘This bill imposes fundamental, sweeping changes in the Medicaid program, and those include very deep cuts that would affect some of the most vulnerable people in our society, including disabled children and poor seniors,’ Collins said … Collins estimated Sunday that there are eight to 10 Republican senators with ‘serious concerns’ about the bill. ‘At the end of the day, I don’t know whether it will pass,’ she said.”
-- Administration officials attempted to convince Nevada's Gov. Sandoval to support the Senate bill during the National Governors Association meeting over the weekend, but their efforts failed. Sean Sullivan and Dan Balz report from Providence, R.I.: “More than any other Republican in the country right now, the centrist governor of Nevada could hold the power to sink or salvage the health-care bill ... The Trump administration mounted a full-court effort here ... recognizing the resistance not only by Sandoval but other Republican governors who are potentially influential with their state’s senators. Despite a heavy public and private effort, however, the administration appeared to have changed no minds — and may even have hardened some of the opposition … Some Democratic colleagues who know Sandoval well are deeply skeptical that he will support the Senate bill.” Why this matters: Nevada GOP Sen. Dean Heller, who is up for reelection next year, appeared with Sandoval when announcing his opposition to the Senate’s original draft. Heller’s vote seems directly tied to Sandoval’s position, and, if Heller votes no, that will probably be enough to sink the entire bill.
-- Amy Goldstein has a great story this morning on Nevada’s rural counties, where health care has been revolutionized by the Medicaid expansion: “The stakes in this land of dusty winds and scarce jobs attest to the special vulnerability of rural communities to the health-care politics of Washington. The toehold that insurance has gained, even here in strong Trump country, suggests why [Heller] became an early, overt critic of what his Republican Party leaders want to do. It also explains why even sustained pressure from the White House has not altered Gov. Brian Sandoval’s opposition to the Senate’s bill.”
-- Police are investigating a break-in at Heller’s Las Vegas office on Saturday, the Las Vegas Review-Journal reports.
-- Revenge watch, Jeff Flake edition. Politico’s Alex Isenstadt reports: “The White House has met with at least three actual or prospective primary challengers to Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake in recent weeks, a reflection of Donald Trump’s strained relations with the senator and the latest sign of the president’s willingness to play hardball with lawmakers who cross him — even Republican incumbents … The bad blood between Trump and Flake dates back to the 2016 presidential race, when Flake was frequently critical of the president … An administration-backed primary challenge to Flake would also further inflame tensions with [McConnell], who over the last several weeks has had several run-ins with the White House over political planning.
-- If McConnell passes a bill through the Senate, count on it becoming law, Paul Kane reports: “At least that’s the assessment of two key House negotiators, one from the conservative and one from the moderate flank. ‘I have no doubt in my mind that if it passes the Senate — in something close to what it’s like now — that it will pass the House,’ said Rep. Tom MacArthur (R-N.J.), a moderate who negotiated portions of the bill that passed the House in early May. His conservative counterpart, Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.), called the latest Senate version ‘a step in the right direction’ and suggested it would ‘have to be a big move’ away from the current draft to sink the bill in the House. Either way, he said, conservatives will not object if House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.) takes the Senate bill and places it on the House floor in a take-it-or-leave-it moment.”
-- As Republican senators weigh whether to risk their political careers on McConnell's revised proposal, the unpopularity of the bill is crystal clear. Philip Bump writes: “In the new Washington Post-ABC News poll released Sunday, we decided to ask the question directly: Which do you prefer, Obamacare or the Republican replacement plan? By a 2-to-1 margin — 50 percent to 24 percent — Americans said they preferred Obamacare. There’s a split by party, as you might expect, with Democrats broadly favoring the existing law and Republicans the latter. But that split wasn’t even, with 77 percent of Democrats favoring the legislation passed in 2010 by their party and only 59 percent of Republicans favoring their party’s solution. Independents in this case came down on the side of the Democrats, with 49 percent favoring the existing law vs. 20 percent backing the GOP alternative.”
-- But the bill’s unpopularity likely won’t stop Republicans. John Holmes, a former top staffer to McConnell, put it this way to the Post’s Aaron Blake: “A poll on a complex legislative issue three weeks after it is unveiled has next to no ability to pick up the lasting sentiment. Conversely, over the course of seven years, Republicans have promised to repeal and replace Obamacare and won multiple elections in large part due to that specific promise. A failure to address a conviction among the base of the Republican Party, seven years in the making, is infinitely more damaging than the ramifications of a three-week snapshot that starts well underwater because of partisan polarization.”
-- As new revelations continue to surface about Donald Trump Jr.’s meeting with the Russians, the president’s lawyer Jay Sekulow offered bizarre new defenses on the Sunday shows. “Well, I wonder why the Secret Service, if this was nefarious, why the Secret Service allowed these people in,” he said on ABC’s "This Week.” Sekulow also put the responsibility for the initial incomplete response regarding last summer’s meeting squarely on the shoulders of the president’s son, Greg Jaffe reports. The president's lawyer disputed press reports that Trump signed off on the inaccurate statement that was initially given to the New York Times. He also said that there was nothing illegal about taking the meeting with the Russians.
Sekulow wouldn’t rule out that Trump might pardon his son or former associates like Paul Manafort if they're found guilty of crimes: “He can pardon individuals, of course. That’s because the founders of our country put that in the United States Constitution: the power to pardon. But I have not had those conversations, so I couldn’t speculate on that.”
-- The Secret Service pushed back on Sekulow's odd statement about its failure to vet the Russian lawyer with whom Trump Jr. met, thinking he was going to get dirt on Hillary Clinton. From Reuters: “In an emailed response to questions about Sekulow's comments, Secret Service spokesman Mason Brayman said the younger Trump was not under Secret Service protection at the time of the meeting, which included Trump's son and two senior campaign officials. ‘Donald Trump, Jr. was not a protectee of the USSS in June, 2016. Thus we would not have screened anyone he was meeting with at that time,’ the statement said.”
-- A new lawyer has joined the White House to take charge of the burgeoning Russia probes. Carol D. Leonnig reports: “Ty Cobb, a former prosecutor and defense lawyer at Hogan Lovells, will seek to play the role of crisis manager and disciplinarian in a White House that has struggled to deal with continuing questions about the federal and congressional probes that have dominated the early months of Trump’s presidency.”
-- “President Trump’s campaign committee made a payment to the law firm of an attorney representing Donald Trump Jr. last month, nearly two weeks before it was announced that the same attorney would be representing the president's son in Russia-related probes,” Mark Berman and Matea Gold report. “The committee reported in the filing to the Federal Election Commission that it paid $50,000 to the law firm of attorney Alan Futerfas on June 27 … The filing also revealed that the campaign committee paid the Trump Corporation — a company being run by Trump Jr. and his brother Eric — more than $89,000 on June 30 for ‘legal consulting.’ … It is permissible under federal law for Trump’s reelection committee to pay for legal expenses related to the Russia inquiries, as along as the costs resulted from campaign activity … The huge legal outlays by Trump's campaign committee came as it has been repeatedly tapping Trump's small donor base for contributions.”
-- More details are emerging about the attendees of the June 2016 meeting. The Atlantic’s Julie Ioffe writes: “Natalia Veselnitskaya has a tendency to appear from out of nowhere and become the center of attention. Before a now-infamous meeting with Donald Trump Jr. at Trump Tower last summer … Veselnitskaya was a relatively unknown figure, even in Moscow. When her name did find its way into the international news, it was because of her spirited defense of some of Russia’s least defensible actions … Veselnitskaya, 42, once served as a prosecutor in the Moscow region … Few people in Moscow had heard of Veselnitskaya until she burst onto the pages of The New York Times this week. Those who had, though, spoke of her fearsome reputation.”
-- “Rinat Akhmetshin, the Russian-American lobbyist who met with Donald Trump Jr. at Trump Tower in June 2016, had one consistent message for the journalists who met him over the years at the luxury hotels where he stayed in Moscow, London and Paris, or at his home on a leafy street in Washington: Never use email to convey information that needed to be kept secret,” the New York Times’ Andrew Higgins and Andrew E. Kramer report. “While not, he insisted, an expert in the technical aspects of hacking nor, a spy, Mr. Akhmetshin talked openly about how he had worked with a counterintelligence unit while serving with the Red Army after its 1979 invasion of Afghanistan and how easy it was to find tech-savvy professionals ready and able to plunder just about any email account.”
-- Sen. Mark Warner, the top Democrat on the Senate Intel Committee, said yesterday he "sure as heck" would like to hear from every attendee of the meeting. Politico’s Zachary Warmbrodt reports: “‘I would like to hear from all of these individuals,’ he said. ‘Whether we will be able to get the Russian nationals to come over and testify is an open question.’ Asked whether the security clearance of Jared Kushner, who also attended the meeting, should be suspended, Warner said he is trying to give ‘all these people the benefit of the doubt’ until the committee interviews them. ‘But it's very bothersome to me that Jared Kushner has forgotten not once, not twice, but three times to put down this information,’ he said.”
-- Ultimately, the question of whether Kushner gets to keep his security clearance may rest with Trump. Politico’s Austin Wright and Josh Dawsey report: “Kushner’s actions — including initially failing to disclose meetings with Russian officials — would be more than enough to cost most federal employees their security clearances, according to people familiar with the security-clearance process … But Kushner isn’t your average federal government employee … The security clearance process is ultimately rooted in executive authority, not law, meaning the president himself is the ultimate arbiter. It is extremely rare for a president to wade into such an issue, experts said, but Trump does have the power, if he wanted to, to demand that Kushner keep his clearance.”
-- Alexa Corse reports for the Wall Street Journal on the hundreds of thousands of attempts to hack individual states’ voting systems during last year’s election: “On Election Day alone, there were nearly 150,000 attempts to penetrate the state’s voter-registration system, according to a postelection report by the South Carolina State Election Commission … In harder-fought Illinois … hackers were hitting the State Board of Elections ‘5 times per second, 24 hours per day’ from late June until Aug. 12, 2016, when the attacks ceased for unknown reasons … Hackers ultimately accessed approximately 90,000 voter records, the State Board of Elections said … South Carolina’s and Illinois’s cases aren’t unique, as many states faced virtual threats. There is evidence that 21 states were potentially targeted by hackers.”
-- Trump still blames Attorney General Jeff Sessions, at least in part, for his Russia woes. Axios’s Jonathan Swan reports: “Sessions' administration allies were hoping President Trump could, as he himself might say, see his way clear to letting it go. But that's not happening. Trump's initial fury about Sessions' recusal from the Russia probe has turned to a simmering resentment that may have permanently poisoned their relationship, according to sources close to both of them. … In Trump's mind, Sessions bowed to political pressure and gave an opening to his enemies (Democrats and the media) … This tension hasn't had any visible impact on Sessions' agenda at the Justice Department, where he has taken a sledgehammer to Obama's legacy … Also, it was never true — and it remains untrue — that Trump ever wanted to get rid of Sessions. He appreciates his value, even if it'll never quite be the same again.”
-- Ousted FBI Director Jim Comey is writing a book about his career -- including his time in the Trump administration. The New York Times’s Alexandra Alter reports: “The book is expected to go to auction this coming week, and all the major publishing houses have expressed keen interest … The book will not be a conventional tell-all memoir, but an exploration of the principles that have guided Mr. Comey through some of the most challenging moments of his legal career. Among those are his investigation into Hillary Clinton’s private email server during a contentious election, and his recent entanglement with the president over the F.B.I.’s inquiry into Russia’s interference in the 2016 election.”
-- During a conversation with British Prime Minister Theresa May, Trump reportedly said that he would not make his state visit to the United Kingdom until he was guaranteed better coverage and a more positive reception. The Sun’s David Wooding reports: “A transcript of the chat, seen by senior diplomats, reveals his touchiness. Mr. Trump says: ‘I haven’t had great coverage out there lately, Theresa.’ She replies awkwardly: ‘Well, you know what the British press are like.’ He replies: ‘I still want to come, but I’m in no rush … So, if you can fix it for me, it would make things a lot easier … When I know I’m going to get a better reception, I’ll come and not before.’”
-- Trump’s comment to the first lady of France that she was “in such great shape” raised many eyebrows, including those of Australia’s foreign minister. Avi Selk reports: “‘You're in such good shape, such good physical shape, beautiful,’ the [Australian Broadcasting Corporation] host told Foreign Minister Julie Bishop, quoting Trump. ‘Would you be flattered or offended?’ This was arguably a politically sensitive question, what with alliance and all. But the foreign minister didn't hesitate. ‘I'd be taken aback,’ Bishop said. And then this zinger: ‘I wonder if she could say the same of him?’”
-- The New Yorker, “How Trump Is Transforming Rural America,” by Peter Hessler: “The region is a Republican stronghold in a state that is starkly divided. Clinton won the Colorado popular vote by a modest margin, but Trump took nearly twice as many counties. The difference came from Denver and Boulder, two populous and liberal enclaves on the Front Range, the eastern side of the Rockies—the Colorado equivalents of New York and California. ‘Donald Trump lost those two counties by two hundred and seventy-three thousand votes, and he won the rest of the state by a hundred and forty thousand votes,’ Steve House, the former chair of the state Republican Party, told me. ‘That means that most of Colorado, in my mind, is a conservative state.’”
-- The Atlantic, “What The 'Crack Baby' Panic Reveals About The Opioid Epidemic,” by Vann R. Newkirk II: “‘Crack baby’ brings to mind hopeless, damaged children with birth defects and intellectual disabilities who would inevitably grow into criminals. It connotes inner-city blackness, and also brings to mind careless, unthinking black mothers who’d knowingly exposed their children to the ravages of cocaine. Although the science that gave the world the term was based on a weak proto-study of only 23 children and has been thoroughly debunked since, the panic about ‘crack babies’ stuck. The term made brutes out of people of color who were living through wave after waves of what were then the deadliest drug epidemics in history … Today’s opioid epidemic presents a mostly-white face to the world, and the larger ‘epidemic of despair’ tends to target communities in vaunted ‘Middle America,’ as opposed to inner-city Baltimore and Detroit. And with that changing face comes better results.”
-- New York Magazine, “How ‘Neoliberalism’ Became the Left’s Favorite Insult of Liberals,” by Jonathan Chait: “The neoliberalism of the 1980s and 1990s has faded into memory, as its adherents failed to settle on a coherent set of principles other than a general posture of counterintuitive skepticism … [But the term] has returned to American political discourse with a vengeance. Then, as now, it is an attempt to win an argument with an epithet. Only this time, it is neoliberal that is the term of abuse. And the term neoliberal doesn’t mean a faction of liberals. It now refers to liberals generally, and it is applied by their left-wing critics. The word is now ubiquitous, popping up in almost any socialist polemic against the Democratic Party or the center-left. Obama’s presidency? It was ‘the last gasp of neoliberalism.’ Why did Hillary Clinton lose? It was her neoliberalism. Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz? Neoliberals both.”
-- Los Angeles Times, “Darrell Issa was Obama's toughest critic. Here's why he's suddenly sounding like a moderate,” by Sarah D. Wire: “As chairman of the committee charged with overseeing the executive branch, Issa was once known as President Obama’s toughest critic. Now the richest man in Congress has found himself with protesters at his door, no committee to lead, and a tough race expected in 2018. It has forced the nine-term congressman to walk a shaky line, reassuring his conservative base that he’s not moderating his positions while showing the growing number of independents and Democrats in his district that he’s not as partisan as people think.”
Trump will have lunch with the vice president followed by a meeting with the secretary of state. He will also have his “Made in America" product showcase later in the afternoon.
Pence will attend the lunch and the showcase, after which he will have a meeting with the president of Serbia. He is scheduled to give a speech at the Christians United for Israel summit in the evening.
-- Temperatures remain stagnant in D.C. today, but the humidity will rise sharply. The Capital Weather Gang forecasts: “Peak afternoon temperatures are very close to where they were over the weekend: in the upper 80s to near 90. But today feels several degrees hotter as humidity surges back into the region (dew points rise to around 70). Skies are partly sunny, but a few storms bubbling up in our western areas late in the day could jog eastward into the metro (20 to 30 percent chance).”
-- Hundreds of protesters who completed a 17-mile march from the NRA’s Northern Virginia headquarters to the Justice Department Saturday morning were met by counter-protesters. Rachel Chason reports: “Men sported National Rifle Association hats and signs declaring ‘free speech is under attack’ and ‘no jihad against our freedoms.’ They said the protesters — who had completed [the match] to denounce a controversial recruitment video — didn’t respect free speech if it challenged their views.”